Measuring the impact of demographic transition on the sustainability of the pension system in Algeria using the theory of co-integration = قياس أثرالتحول الديمغرافي على استدامة نظام التقاعد في الجزائر : باستخدام نظرية التكامل المشترك

Abstract

The objective of this study is to determine the extent to which demographic factors (fertility rate and life expectancy) contribute to the creation of the pension system deficit in Algeria, based on the results of the estimation long-term relationships using the co-integration test and the ARDL model. for the period (1995-2018). The results of the co-integration test showed a long-term steady-state relationship between the ratio of CNR balance/GDP, life expectancy and fertility rates, which is negative, as life expectancy increases, the number of pensioners increases relative to the number of social security contributors, resulting in an increase in the deficit of the CNR